Rethinking transit in a new world of work

Posted: February 07, 2025

Everybody hates commuting. Even our ancestors.

For much of human history, cities and transit systems seem to have been built around the idea that people are willing to commute for up to an hour a day – and will organize their lives so that their commutes fall within this limit. The observation has come to be known as "Marchetti's Constant," after a 1994 paper on the topic by Italian physicist Cesare Marchetti, and it’s guided urban planning and transportation design for decades. Thirty minutes each way, Marchetti theorized, is roughly the maximum time most people will put up with —whether on foot in Ancient Rome, by train in Victorian England, or by car in modern-day Melbourne.

The one-hour commute seemed like a universal rule of thumb, but nowadays, long-stable commuting patterns are in flux. Many workers don’t commute at all anymore. Others juggle hybrid schedules that disrupt the predictable rush hours of the past. Traditionally, transit networks have planned their services based on historical patterns that changed little over time. But in this new world of work, is Marchetti’s Constant still a useful heuristic?

How do commute times influence transportation networks?

Marchetti’s theory has long been hard to prove, but it aligns intuitively with a basic human desire: to minimize time spent commuting. It also helps explain why ancient cities maintained walkable sizes, and why modern cities sprawl now that the automobile is widespread. Marchetti even suggested that an hour-long tolerance is rooted in evolutionary history—a behavioral instinct influencing where and how we choose to live and work.

Critics, however, point out limitations. The theory relies on anecdotal examples and often excludes lower-income populations with fewer employment choices. Moreover, modern megacities like Tokyo, London, and Los Angeles challenge the notion of a universal one-hour threshold, with many residents – including swathes of white-collar, middle-class workers – enduring longer commutes.

Nonetheless, consistent commuting times remain a striking feature of human behavior. A landmark 2014 study by MIT researchers on global mobility patterns offered some much-needed empirical evidence for understanding global commuting patterns. The researchers analyzed anonymized mobile phone data across four continents, finding that commuters don't care how far they have to travel, as long as there's a mode of transit that can get them to work in the same time it takes other workers in their city. Whether living in Riyadh or Libson, getting to work faster is more important to most people than, say, driving for the prestige factor or walking because it’s free. Commuters use the transportation options available to them to reduce their commuting times, leading to stable commuting times within a local network. 

Consistent commuting choices within a city have been essential for transit networks in planning their services. But what was true ten years ago, and – if Marchetti was right – for all of human history, may not be so true now. 

Remote work has significantly disrupted traditional commuting norms. A 2024 Nature Cities paper confirmed that more people working from home has correlated with fewer miles traveled in both vehicles and mass transit in the U.S. Public transit systems. In cities like New York and San Francisco, ridership still lags behind pre-pandemic levels, leading to significant revenue losses and operational challenges.

Reduced ridership has evoked concerns about a transit death spiral, where declining ridership reduces revenue, forcing many transit agencies to cut services, which in turn makes public transportation less attractive and perpetuates the cycle. The Nature Cities paper estimates that if current remote work trends persist, U.S. transit networks could lose billions annually in fare revenue.

How are transit networks responding to changing commuter patterns?

Adapting to changing commuting patterns is not a straightforward challenge. Cities are experiencing changes in commuting behaviors drastically different from the changes in other cities’ in commuting behaviors, and the reasons aren’t always clear. A 2023 Brookings study found that from 2019-2022 in the United States, no single, consistent factor—such as economic growth, population changes, or even the prevalence of remote-friendly industries—could fully explain the variations in cities’ transportation trends. 

Moreover, decreased commuting times do not necessarily mean less travel time in general. In some areas, individual miles traveled are actually up. It seems that with less time required for commuting, many people are finding other reasons, like errands or leisure, to leave the house. 

This variability suggests that transit networks must adopt flexible, localized solutions rather than one-size-fits-all approaches. In many cities, transportation networks are embracing new digital tools to optimize their services and meet the evolving needs of the modern commuter. Some emerging trends include:

1. Big Data, AI, and GPS trackers for smarter networks
   
   Data-driven technologies are enabling transit networks to adapt their routes in real time. TokyoMetro, uses AI and computer vision to monitor train crowding and adjust service dynamically. Similarly, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority uses an AI-driven enterprise system for traffic inspection and route management, promoting efficiency even as travel patterns shift unpredictably.
   These technologies are often used in tandem with GPS trackers, which enable networks to monitor their fleets in real time, and communicate any delays or service changes to their passengers via an integrated app.
   
   
2. Connecting passengers with microtransit and ridesharing options
   
   Microtransit and ridesharing apps may have long been seen as a threat to public transit networks, but some cities are successfully partnering with them to provide residents with cost-efficient travel options that fill service gaps in traditional public transit. Jersey City collaborated with Via to introduce an on-demand, app-based public ride-share service. The city-run service matches multiple riders heading in the same direction into shared vehicles, and has already offered 2 million rides in four years.
   Before the partnership, reportedly only 20% of the city’s jobs were reachable within 30 minutes by the city’s public transit offerings. Now, more than half of the city’s jobs can be accessed within the Marchetti benchmark.
   
   
3. Improved passenger experience with Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms
   
   Passengers value reliability and convenience, and Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms are improving the way passengers interact with transit systems. Apps like Jelbi in Berlin, and Floya in Brussels offer passengers seamless digital solutions to book, plan, and pay for their transport, all in one app. Without the hassle of multiple subscriptions to various service providers, public transportation becomes more attractive and more accessible.

While Marchetti’s Constant may not be a rigid rule, its underlying insight—that the way we commute shapes how we live—remains ever relevant. We are commuting in more flexible and more bespoke ways. With the help of digital tools that enable tailored services, transit networks are adapting to address this new reality.